Analysts predict a short-lived rebound for Bitcoin in Q1 2026

Bitcoin faces a difficult start to 2026 after giving back most of its earlier gains in the past 3 months, as Cryptopolitan has been extensively reporting.

The OG crypto had gone on a monster rally earlier this year making one all-time high after another, mostly thanks to Trump taking back the White House.

But recent uncertainties and intense leverage have dragged Bitcoin down enough to end 2025 in the red.

Bitcoin’s price last traded at $88,242, leaving Bitcoin down about 6% for the year and roughly 30% below its record high of nearly $126,000, which was reached in early October, according to data from CoinGecko.

ETFs and regulation drive rebound expectations

Some analysts still expect Bitcoin to rebound in early 2026, even if the recovery does not last.Citi Research’s says near-term support could come from the expansion of crypto exchange-traded funds, which continue to bring better access for both retail and institutional investors.

In a note written Dec. 18, Citi analyst Alex Saunders said Bitcoin predictions assume adoption continues and ETF inflows reach $15 billion, but that level can only rally prices in the short term.

Citi has reportedly set a base-case target of $143,000 over the next 12 months for Bitcoin. The bank also shared a bull-case target of $189,000 and a bear-case level of $78,000 for the same period.

Meanwhile, attention remains on Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, as another signal for price direction. In a Dec. 3 note, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed to the company’s enterprise-value-to-holdings ratio, which remains above 1.0, a level that reassures markets that the company can avoid selling its holdings during stress.

“If this ratio stays above 1.0 and MicroStrategy can eventually avoid selling bitcoins, markets will likely be reassured and the worst for bitcoin prices will likely be behind us,” Nikolaos wrote.

“We also find encouraging MicroStrategy’s creation of a $1.4bn reserve fund for future dividend and interest payments,” Nikolaos added, saying that it reduces the risk of forced sales.

Though according to Cryptoquant, Bitcoin’s long-term holders continue to focus on the traditional four-year cycle that has historically determined prices.

Jaime Leverton, chief executive officer of ReserveOne, said on CNBC’s Squawk Box that the old cycle is fading as the industry gains stronger support in the United States. “I actually think we’ll see a new Bitcoin all-time high next year, which would really be the final nail in the coffin for the historical cycle,” Jaime said.