Republican senator Ted Cruz warned on Friday about a potential “bloodbath” in the 2026 midterm elections if President Donald Trump’s tariffs drag the United States economy into a recession.
According to Financial Times, the Texas lawmaker said a long-term trade war could have devastating effects on both the economy and Republican political prospects.
Cruz typically aligns with Trump, but his remarks were unusually blunt. He called the possibility of an ongoing conflict with retaliatory tariffs from other nations “a terrible outcome.”
In his view, if the tariff standoff leads to a recession, “particularly a bad recession,” voters could turn sharply against the party in power. “2026 in all likelihood politically would be a bloodbath,” Cruz said. The Canada-born Texan added that even the Republican Senate majority, currently 53-47, might not survive if the economy sours and people blame the party leading the country.
Republican lawmakers have begun to share these concerns. Their unease intensified when the stock market shed about $5.4 trillion in value after Trump’s so-called “liberation day” levies launched a global market retreat. Observers worry that ongoing trade tensions could hurt U.S. exporters, harm jobs, and worsen inflation if the measures remain in place indefinitely.
Democrats want to undo the tariffs
On Thursday, Republican senator Chuck Grassley joined forces with a Democrat to introduce a bill that would reassert congressional authority over tariff policy. Under the proposed law, new tariffs would expire in 60 days unless Congress voted to keep them in place. Lawmakers would also have the power to revoke existing levies.
By Friday, Republican senators Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, Jerry Moran, and Thom Tillis had signed on as co-sponsors. Although the bill may not advance, the growing support suggests that many in the party are wary of the president’s approach and fear potential fallout ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Signs of discontent emerged this week when a conservative candidate backed by Elon Musk lost a state supreme court race in Wisconsin to a liberal opponent. Republicans also underperformed their 2024 results in two special House elections in Florida.
These setbacks added fuel to doubts that the current trade policy will help the party maintain control of both chambers of Congress. Cruz said that if the U.S. is in the middle of a recession and “people are hurting badly,” they will likely turn on the GOP. “They punish the party in power.”
Cruz also disputed Trump’s claim that tariffs will usher in “a booming economy.” He suggested that there would only be “an enormous economic boom” if the U.S. and any retaliating countries lowered duty rates across the board.
Otherwise, if tariffs become permanent, he predicted “real damage” to the economy and warned that a full-blown trade war “would destroy jobs here at home.” It would also “have a powerful upward impact on inflation,” the senator cautioned. He warned that further escalation could lock the country into lasting harm.
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