Russia increased oil output in September but misses OPEC+ target

Russia turned the taps up in September, pumping out 9.368 million barrels of crude per day, Bloomberg reported, but still didn’t meet its OPEC+ quota.

That production jump, a sharp 193,000 barrels per day more than August, was the biggest monthly boost since April. But even with the extra barrels, Russia fell 47,000 barrels per day short of its official target, which had been revised down to 9.415 million barrels per day as part of the alliance’s updated compensation cuts.

The oil surge comes at a tense moment. As OPEC+ continues loosening the taps, Russia (a top-three global oil producer) is under pressure to prove it can keep pace.

But between Ukrainian drone strikes slamming its refineries and shipping ports running out of room, the country is leaning more on raw crude exports instead of refined products. That shift is raising red flags inside the cartel as Moscow’s balance between pumping more oil and hitting the quota keeps falling apart.

Ukraine strikes slash refinery use while ports choke on raw barrels

Refineries inside Russia have been under fire, literally. Waves of drone attacks from Ukraine have cut into the country’s crude processing capacity, forcing exporters to offload more unrefined oil than usual. That’s led to a glut of outbound barrels piling up in major ports, with reports that some shipping terminals are hitting capacity limits.

The Kremlin’s response? Silence. Since the start of Western sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has classified its oil output data. That’s left oil watchers piecing together trends from ship-tracking data and refinery estimates, since there’s no transparent way to verify the numbers. Still, Russia insists everything’s under control.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told Interfax that September’s output was roughly in line with Russia’s OPEC+ promise. “Just as we can’t reduce production quickly, we are ramping it up gradually. We will fulfill our quota,” Alexander said. But the numbers don’t lie: September still came in under target, and August did too.

Russia’s problem isn’t just drones and data blackouts. It’s got a long record of being late on OPEC+ deals, and this year’s been no different. The alliance has revised its compensation cut calendar four times in 2025 alone, with the latest version demanding Russia cut its original 9.449 million barrels per day target by 34,000 barrels, bringing the final September limit down to 9.415 million barrels per day. Bloomberg noted Russia’s actual output was closer to the earlier version of the plan, which had asked for 9.364 million barrels per day.

U.S. demand jumps while OPEC+ adjusts November targets

Outside Russia, markets kept an eye on American consumption. On Wednesday, Brent crude rose $0.80 to $66.25, while WTI climbed $0.82 to $62.55.

Traders focused less on the unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories and more on fresh data from the Energy Information Administration, which showed that weekly petroleum product demand hit 21.990 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2022.

EIA reported a stockpile build of 3.7 million barrels for the week ending October 3, topping forecasts of 1.9 million barrels from a Reuters poll and 2.8 million barrels from the API. That didn’t rattle markets much, as demand stayed strong. “The demand numbers are pretty strong and that should keep the market supported,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ met Sunday and agreed to a modest bump in output for November, setting the new target 137,000 barrels per day higher than before. That number came in lower than expected, as the group tries to avoid a supply glut. But with Russia already behind, the real test will be who actually delivers those barrels — and who doesn’t.