Why prediction markets’ high volume yields more for data utilities than traditional sportsbooks

In an agreement to provide sports data and associated services, Sportradar and prediction market platform Kalshi forged a significant collaboration that caused the company’s stock to soar before trading commenced.

The multi-year global agreement with Kalshi, a company that claims to be the world’s biggest prediction market, was verified by Sportradar Group AG, which is listed on the NASDAQ as SRAD.

Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, Major League Soccer, the Ultimate Fighting Championship, and other sports properties’ data and services are covered under the agreement.

Scope of the data agreement

Prediction markets have been picking up speed as a regulated part of the sports industry, and Sportradar is moving to get ahead of that growth.

The agreement also positions Sportradar to work with Kalshi’s wider network of partners, including brokers and market makers, by giving them access to live official data.

Through its Prediction Services division, Sportradar will deliver live sports data and odds to Kalshi, alongside fan engagement tools, customer acquisition services, and integrity monitoring through its UFDS AI and Integrity Exchange systems.

What the two sides said

Sportradar CEO Carsten Koerl said the partnership is a natural next step because the company already has strong experience in online sports betting.

He said prediction markets are becoming an important growth area for the sports industry, and Sportradar is well placed to support their development.

Through its partnership with Kalshi, the company will bring its sports data and services to this growing market and work closely with market makers and other participants.

Koerl added that this agreement is only the beginning, and Sportradar plans to work with more prediction market companies as the industry develops.

The goal is to help create a trusted and compliant system for sports-related innovation, similar to what the company has done in online sports betting.

Kalshi’s co-founder and chief executive, Tarek Mansour, highlighted two points he said make this deal matter for his platform.

“The breadth and depth of this partnership is what makes it a big deal,” Mansour said. “We’re using official league data to ensure quicker trade settlements, creating an overall better customer experience. We’re also collaborating on an integrity monitoring program to further protect our users.”

Sportradar said it will only enter into agreements with prediction market operators that follow the relevant laws and carry the proper licenses.

Why prediction markets bring in more money per transaction

The deal moved Sportradar’s stock quickly. Shares climbed 9.06% in trading after the announcement, currently trading at $15.16.

Investment bank Needham responded by raising its price target on Sportradar stock from $19 to $23, while keeping a Buy rating on the company.

Needham said the deal puts Sportradar in a good position to benefit from the growth of prediction markets in the United States.

According to Needham, prediction markets generate more revenue per dollar of volume for data suppliers like Sportradar than traditional sportsbooks do.

The reasons behind this come down to a few key factors.

Prediction markets see higher trading frequency than conventional sports betting.

Market makers and other professional participants create heavier demand for data and more frequent calls to data systems.

The pricing structures for prediction market data feeds are also different, and the dynamics around trade settlement and customer acquisition work differently as well.

There are also regulatory and structural differences that make real-time data more valuable in this environment.

Needham expects Sportradar to pull in tens of millions of dollars from prediction markets in 2026 alone.

The bank also said the deal settles a question that had been sitting over the company for some time, whether prediction markets were a threat to its business or an opening to grow it.

In Needham’s view, the answer is now clear.

The firm believes the agreement will lift Sportradar’s valuation as investors grow more confident in the company’s ability to hit its targets in the second half of the year and grow its U.S. revenue over the coming years.