Polymarket hits $1 billion revenue run rate as traders bet on everything

Polymarket says its yearly revenue pace has climbed past $1 billion, a figure revealed as trading activity accelerates across prediction markets.

The update arrived just over a month after the company opened access to its regulated U.S. marketplace by removing a waiting list that had been in place since launch.

Recently, the FIFA World Cup currently happening has increased interest around prediction markets, as thousands of contracts connected to sports outcomes pulled in an insane wave of activity.

World Cup traders push Polymarket volumes sharply higher

Numbers tracked by Dune Analytics show a dramatic jump in activity on the U.S. side of Polymarket. Daily turnover was sitting near $50 million around the middle of May.

By June 20, that figure had climbed beyond $200 million. Overseas trading also accelerated. Weekly volume on the international platform reached new highs after softer conditions earlier in April and May.

The American exchange first went live in December. Its arrival followed years of regulatory issues that kept Polymarket out of the U.S. market. Back in 2022, the company could not legally operate there because registration requirements had not been met.

The situation changed after both the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice ended their reviews without filing charges. The U.S. operation now runs under CFTC oversight. A Polymarket spokesperson allegedly told CNBC:

“Polymarket is a product-led company. We spent the last five years building the world’s largest prediction market, and understanding how people engage with markets at scale. We are applying those learnings to our U.S. platform, where our focus is on intuitive market experiences, institutional-grade liquidity and a consumer experience that sets the standard for the category.”

Regulators, lawmakers and consumer groups increase scrutiny of Polymarket

While trading activity is climbing, two U.S. senators recently asked for federal scrutiny of Polymarket’s online marketing, according to the Wall Street Journal.

In a letter sent to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, John Curtis and Adam Schiff wrote that the allegations were “deeply troubling and demand immediate scrutiny.”

The lawmakers added:

“The public-facing behavior alleged here does not resemble a sober financial market designed for hedging or price discovery. We remain concerned that the Commission is neither enforcing the law appropriately, nor is equipped to serve as a federal gambling regulator.”

Their request asked whether regulators are examining Polymarket and whether the conduct described in the reporting could violate federal rules.

At the same time, a separate CFTC inquiry into Polymarket is underway. News of that review surfaced after the agency had already closed a broader investigation last year.

The Journal reported that the company paid content creators to record simulated trades on imitation websites and used workers outside the United States to help spread those clips online. The report said the campaign targeted American audiences despite restrictions that have blocked U.S. users from trading on the international website since 2022.

Journal reporters examined 1,105 videos, most of them featuring college-age creators. None disclosed payment from Polymarket. Nearly 10% allegedly used modified headlines or old footage to create the impression that traders had earned almost $900,000. The report said those positions would actually have produced losses exceeding $166,000. Several clips described the activity as “free money.”

Meanwhile, the consumer advocacy group National Association of Consumer Advocates (NACA) filed a lawsuit against Polymarket, CEO Shayne Coplan, and CMO Matthew Modabber earlier today.

The complaint alleges that college students were targeted through misleading advertising that did not properly communicate the risk of losing money. The filing said that:

“Polymarket aimed to attract young people to place bets on their platforms using a method likely to be effective: showing them social media videos of popular and respected young people enjoying a Polymarket platform. But rather than pursue this goal lawfully, Defendants used many layers of manipulation to trick college-aged consumers, who suffered significant harms as a result.”

The case was filed in Washington, D.C. by Vaca Daffan, a law firm created by two former Federal Trade Commission attorneys. Acting on behalf of the National Association of Consumer Advocates, the lawsuit seeks financial penalties and an order blocking the marketing practices described in the Journal’s reporting.