Prediction market platform Polymarket has launched an official integration with Solana, allowing users to deposit using the high-speed, low-cost blockchain. Such an upgrade should benefit users by lowering transaction fees and speeding up deposits.
Polymarket announced on March 25 that users can deposit SOL into their wallets. This integration represents an important move for the platform, which has seen a meteoric rise in popularity, particularly with political betting activity turning up ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential race.
Polymarket expands beyond Polygon, strengthens credibility with high accuracy
Until recently, Polymarket was only available on the Polygon network and required users to deposit primarily in USDC stablecoins. The addition of Solana broadens the platform’s reach even further, putting the sixth-largest cryptocurrency by market value right in line with USDC.
After experiencing a spike in activity during the most recent U.S. presidential election, Polymarket hopes this integration can attract more users.
The platform hit 450,000 monthly active traders in January. However, these numbers have since decreased slightly.
Polymarket has been establishing its credibility by accurately predicting actual events. In a recent study by data scientist Alex McCullough, the platform was accurate 90% of the time when predicting an event one month in advance. In addition, in the final four hours before an event was settled, it was 94% accurate.
Using a Dune dashboard, McCullough’s analysis reveals that Polymarket consistently outperforms standard polling techniques. Although this overestimation is partly down to behavioral biases, such as herd mentality and low liquidity, the exchange is one of the most trusted sources of event predictions.
Traders bet 78% on a Solana ETF approval in 2025
On Polymarket, traders are giving the SEC a 78% chance of approving spot Solana ETFs in 2025. This comes after earlier approvals of Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products.
A new Polymarket poll, posted as recently as yesterday, started at 45% but spiked over 70% within minutes. Despite rampant optimism, traders do not know if and when such a move will occur.Â
In a separate Polymarket poll from November, the probability of approval by July 31 stood at 57%, down from 70% earlier in the week.
As of January 2, five asset managers, including Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital, have submitted applications for Solana ETFs. However, the verdict is based on how the SEC handled the Solana (SOL) lawsuit.
In lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, the SEC has classified SOL as a security, increasing its legal ambiguity. Indeed, reports indicate that at least two would-be ETF issuers have already been told by the SEC that they have no chance of approval. However, many people think the new SEC leadership will result in the approval of Solana ETFs.
ETF analysts are optimistic about a new administration taking office in 2025. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expects new crypto ETFs, including those tracking Litecoin, Hedera, XRP, and Solana, to emerge next year. However, he notes that the approval of Solana or XRP ETFs will likely depend on a leadership shift at the SEC.
Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, also believes that Solana ETFs will be approved this year. On December 19, ETF manager Volatility Shares filed to launch three Solana futures ETFs despite not being traded on a CFTC-regulated exchange.
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