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Oracle cloud revenue uptick disappoints, investors question AI‑infrastructure gamble

In this post:

  • Oracle posted 34% cloud growth to $7.98 billion and 68% infrastructure growth to $4.08 billion, but both missed estimates.
  • Remaining performance obligation rose to $523 billion for the quarter ended Nov. 30.
  • Capital spending hit about $13 billion versus $8.25 billion expected, with $35 billion projected for the fiscal year.

Oracle reported a cloud revenue result that landed below expectations, leaving investors uneasy about how long its massive AI booking wave will take to turn into steady cash.

Fiscal second-quarter cloud sales climbed 34 percent to $7.98 billion, but the figure missed analyst forecasts. The slower payoff timing now sits at the center of market debate.

This report marked the first major cloud test for the new leadership team running the company after a high-profile executive shift.

Revenue from the infrastructure unit jumped 68 percent to $4.08 billion in the same period, yet that number also came in just under projections.

Oracle said the remaining performance obligation reached $523 billion for the quarter that ended November 30.

Analysts on the Wall Street trading floor had expected about $519 billion, showing demand stayed strong even as near-term revenue lagged today. Oracle’s bookings figure showed future work piling up, but the timing of when that money hits income remains uncertain.

Investors question spending as data center build speeds up

Oracle built its cloud push on its old database base and then chased bigger names in modern computing. The current expansion is tied tightly to a large data center build meant to support AI workloads for OpenAI.

Major platform clients also include TikTok under ByteDance and Meta Platforms. These customers help explain the surge in infrastructure demand even as questions grow about the cost of keeping those sites running nonstop.

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Spending pressure showed up clearly in the quarter. Capital expenditures reached about $13 billion, up from $8.5 billion in the prior period. Back in September, the company projected full-year capital spending of $35 billion.

Analysts had modeled only $8.25 billion for the latest quarter, which widened the gap between expectations and what was actually spent.

The higher outlay reflects land, power, hardware, and network commitments tied to multiple new locations leased to expand computing capacity. These sites are meant to meet AI demand that has not yet fully turned into recognized sales on books.

CEO Clay Magouyrk said, “Oracle is good at building and running high-performance and cost-efficient cloud data centers,” adding that automation lets more sites be built and operated at scale.

Shares are down about one-third since September 10, when excitement around the cloud unit pushed the company to a record high. This report was also the first since Safra Catz handed the chief executive role to Clay and Mike Sicilia.

Meanwhile, Oracle chairman and founder Larry Ellison, said:

“Oracle sold Ampere because we no longer think it is strategic for us to continue designing, manufacturing and using our own chips in our cloud data centers.”

Larry said the company is “now committed to a policy of chip neutrality,” and will continue to buy the latest graphics processing chips from Nvidia, but needs “to be prepared and able to deploy whatever chips our customers want to buy.”

See also  Meta’s Q3 revenue surges by 26% to $51.2 billion, but Reality Labs lost $4.4 billion

Oracle stock has plunged by 11% in extended trading as of press time.

Investors react to missed targets and ballooning AI debt

According to ICE Data Services, the cost of credit default swaps (CDS) protecting Oracle’s debt climbed 5 basis points, hitting 1.246 percentage points annually.

That’s its highest intraday level since last Thursday and nearing levels last seen earlier this month when the firm’s risk profile peaked to levels not touched since the 2008 financial crisis.

A higher CDS spread means weaker market confidence. In Oracle’s case, it’s now being treated like a litmus test for AI balance-sheet stress.

The company’s credit derivatives have become a market-wide proxy for measuring AI investment risk. Barclays credit strategist Jigar Patel flagged a dramatic jump in CDS trading activity. Oracle’s CDS volume reached $9.2 billion over the 10-week period ending December 5, based on trade repository data.

That compares to just $410 million traded in the same period last year. The scale of that jump underscores how much Oracle’s AI expansion has rattled credit desks far beyond tech analysts.

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