Nobel Committee investigates itself after Polymarket predicted winner early

Officials in Norway have announced that the Nobel Committee is now investigating how a crypto trader on Polymarket appeared to know this year’s Peace Prize winner (María Corina Machado, a Venezuelan opposition leader known for challenging her country’s regime) before anyone else, according to Erik Aasheim, spokesperson for the Nobel Institute, which manages the prize selection.

As Cryptopolitan previously reported, the surge in bets happened just after midnight in Oslo, raising suspicion that someone leaked the result before the official announcement.

Trader 6741 turns a late-night gamble into $50,000 profit

Roughly 12 hours before the Nobel announcement, a mysterious trader using the handle “6741” started buying huge positions on Machado’s victory. At that point, she was considered an unlikely choice.

But within 2 hours, the trader’s activity transformed the quiet market into a frenzy. When the winner was announced the next day, “6741” walked away with more than $50,000 in profit.

What turned heads was how fast her odds jumped from 5% to nearly 70% overnight, all traced back to a newly created Polymarket account.

Another Polymarket user, known as “GayPride,” began betting heavily once the early wagers caught attention on social media. With odds swinging between 60% and 71%, that user ended up pocketing over $85,000. For many traders, it was a jackpot.

Neither Polymarket nor the Nobel Institute responded to detailed questions from journalists, and The Wall Street Journal reported it couldn’t reach “6741” for comment. Polymarket operates offshore and is technically banned for U.S. users, so it doesn’t outlaw insider trading.

That’s why even if someone inside the Nobel process tipped off traders, it’s unclear whether the bets actually violated any law.

Harvard professor Jason Furman, who once advised President Barack Obama, reacted to the situation online. “The other day a student asked me about the prevalence of insider trading in prediction markets. I now have an answer,” he posted on Bluesky, attaching a screenshot from Polymarket’s Nobel betting page.

Trump’s campaign, Polymarket’s $8 billion boom, and the legal gray zone

This year’s Nobel Peace Prize carried extra attention because Donald Trump publicly campaigned for it, which made the prize itself a trending topic, drawing more bettors to prediction platforms like Polymarket.

Earlier this week, the Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, announced plans to invest $2 billion in Polymarket, in a deal valued the latter at $8 billion and signaled how mainstream prediction markets have become.

Polymarket was founded just five years ago by the relatively mysterious Shayne Coplan and got in trouble with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2022, which ended with Shayne agreeing to block American users.

The crypto betting platform got really popular last year when bettors correctly predicted Trump’s second presidential win and even pop cultural moments, like a user named “romanticpaul” betting on Taylor Swift’s engagement hours before it went public.

In September, Cryptopolitan reported that Polymarket acquired a small CFTC-licensed exchange, as part of its plan to re-enter the U.S.

Economists remain divided, with some arguing that insider trading improves accuracy, while others call it unfair manipulation.

One potential growth area for Polymarket in the U.S. is sports. Kalshi now offers betting contracts on football, basketball, and other professional sports, encroaching on the turf of established sportsbooks such as DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment’s FanDuel.