New BTC wallets under pressure from high cost basis

BTC has put significant pressure on new buyers, with wallets aged less than 155 days carrying significant unrealized losses. For now, BTC has not shown signs of panic-selling even from those cohorts. 

Recent Bitcoin buyers are holding unrealized losses after buying at a high cost basis. Even the reserves of Strategy are underwater, with up to 40% of the supply held with unrealized losses. 

The newest cohort of wallets aged under 155 days is currently being tested. BTC hovered at $91,270.42, while peak buyers held through a 25% drawdown from the peak. 

95% of recent coins bought are underwater

On-chain data shows 95% of all coins acquired in the last 155 days are underwater. The level of underwater wallets is even higher compared to March 2020, when the price crashed to $3,800. At that point, around 92% of wallets were underwater. 

The metric increased to 94% once again in November 2022 at $15,500 per BTC. Usually, after the underwater wallet percentage reaches a high level, Bitcoin stages a recovery. 

In Q4, the newest buyers acquired BTC at an all-time high of over $126,000. The most recent buyers hold roughly 22% of the Bitcoin supply, and may be a significant factor in selling pressure, if some of the holders capitulate. 

Despite the downturn, whales added 2.2% more addresses in the past month, buying through the recent dips. Strategy also extended its buying streak with another 8,178 BTC. Recent wallets may also not feel the full pain, as they may be created for active trading, while whales hold at a much lower average price. 

BTC holder cost basis points to bear market territory

Based on Glassnode data, the current BTC price has sunk below the range of long-term accumulation. 

BTC must break above the 0.75 cost-basis quintile to return to a bullish trajectory. Despite the fearful trading on derivative markets, BTC is still not showing signs of panic or capitulation. The coin retains other support levels based on a lower cost basis. 

The on-chain true mean price is at $82.1K, while the cost basis of ETF buyers is at an average of $82.5K. 

Based on options market expectations, BTC may revisit a lower level at $85,000 or even $80,000. Despite this, demand for holding actual coins is not showing signs of capitulation. Whales, shark wallets and even retail accumulation addresses are still increasing their balance. 

BTC derivative traders have set a new range, with short positions up to $96,000 and a concentration of long positions at $89,000. Bitcoin is still testing its multiple lines of defense, though holders show resilience and only realize profits during rallies. 

Bitcoin has absorbed selling from whales in the past year, raising the realized price to over $52,800 as a historical average. The recent buyers are expecting an even bigger rally, as 2025 invited more buyers at the peak with the promise of an even higher range. 

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