MSCI Q4 earnings beats forecasts as sales rally to $822.5M, revenue rises by 10.6%

MSCI posted a solid finish to 2025, blowing past forecasts with fourth-quarter revenue of $822.5 million, up 10.6% from a year ago. The company’s adjusted earnings per share rose 11.5% to $4.66, while diluted EPS dipped 2.3% to $3.81.

Operating income increased 14.4% to $463.6 million, and operating margin reached 56.4%. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $512 million, up 13.2%, with a margin of 62.2%.

CEO Henry Fernandez said the company hit new records for index-related inflows and recurring index sales.

“This was our best-ever quarter for recurring sales in Index,” Henry said. He also mentioned that MSCI was entering its 11th straight year of double-digit adjusted EPS growth and would continue to focus on AI and newer client segments.

Revenue climbs across index, analytics, climate, and private assets

The Index segment brought in $479.1 million, a 14% gain. Asset-based fees hit $211.7 million, up 20.7%, and recurring subscriptions reached $246.4 million, up 7.8%.

MSCI’s Index Run Rate rose to $1.9 billion, an increase of 16.2%, with organic recurring subscription Run Rate up 9.3%. Adjusted EBITDA for the segment totaled $374 million, with a margin of 78.1%.

The Analytics segment reported revenue of $182.3 million, a 5.5% increase. Subscriptions made up $179.7 million of that, mostly from equity and multi-asset class tools. Run Rate increased to $757.4 million, up 8.4%, with organic growth at 7.0%. EBITDA stayed flat at $83.9 million, with the margin dropping slightly to 46.0%.

The Private Assets segment, which includes Real Assets and Private Capital Solutions, brought in $70.9 million, up 8.4%. Recurring subscriptions increased 9.4%, and Run Rate climbed to $292 million, up 9.5%. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $16 million, with a margin of 22.5%.

MSCI expands buybacks, raises dividend, and gives 2026 outlook

MSCI repurchased 4.4 million shares during 2025 and early 2026, spending $2.47 billion at an average of $559.85 per share. There’s still $2.1 billion remaining under its current repurchase program. The board approved a $2.05 per share cash dividend for the first quarter of 2026, which is 13.9% higher than the prior payout. The dividend will be paid on February 27.

Total operating expenses rose 6.1% to $358.9 million, while adjusted EBITDA expenses hit $310.5 million, up 6.6%. Headcount grew 2.2% to 6,268, split between developed and emerging markets. Higher tech and office costs also pushed expenses higher.

Net income fell 6.8% to $284.7 million due to higher tax expenses and other charges. The effective tax rate spiked to 26.8%, up from 15.9%, driven by a restructuring. MSCI said it expects an $88 million tax benefit in 2026 from that same internal move.

Cash on hand was $515.3 million, and debt stood at $6.2 billion. The company aims to keep its debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio between 3.0x and 3.5x, which currently sits at 3.3x.

In November, MSCI issued $500 million of senior notes due in 2036, carrying a 5.15% rate.

Cash from operations rose 16.4% to $501.1 million, and free cash flow was up 17.8% to $464.8 million. Capex totaled $36.3 million.

For 2026, MSCI is forecasting $1.49 billion to $1.53 billion in operating expenses. Adjusted EBITDA expenses are expected to range from $1.305 billion to $1.335 billion.

The company sees capital spending between $160 million and $170 million, and free cash flow reaching up to $1.53 billion. Interest costs may climb to $280 million, and it projects an effective tax rate of 18% to 20%.