Iran’s growing uranium stockpile adds new pressure to global inflation fears

Iran is sitting on over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, and no one knows if it was destroyed, moved, or buried under rubble.

After the United States and Israel bombed three of Iran’s major nuclear sites — Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — there’s growing concern that Tehran may have used the chaos to hide its most dangerous nuclear material.

That fear isn’t just about war though, folks. It’s about inflation, too. Nuclear uncertainty hits markets hard, and when oil traders and policymakers don’t know what’s coming, prices go up. Supply chains panic. Governments hoard. The bombs may have landed in Iran, but the economic pressure is global.

According to Reuters, US President Donald Trump confirmed that the strikes involved bunker-busting bombs, claiming the sites were “obliterated.”

But the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which is in charge of monitoring Iran’s nuclear program, said the real damage is still unknown — especially at Fordow, the underground facility responsible for producing most of Iran’s high-level enriched uranium.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the agency, said on Monday that the centrifuges were likely badly damaged, but there’s no clear evidence yet that the actual stockpile — nearly 9 tonnes in total, including the 400+ kg enriched close to weapons-grade — was hit.

Tehran may have moved uranium before the first bombs dropped

Grossi also said Iran had notified him on June 13, just hours before Israel launched its first attacks, that it was “taking measures to protect its nuclear equipment and materials.” He didn’t give details, but officials think that means the uranium was quietly relocated.

One diplomat familiar with the situation said much of the enriched uranium from Fordow appeared to have been moved “days in advance,” almost like Tehran was warned. A satellite image showing trucks lined up near the facility before the strike backs up that claim.

Trump dismissed that completely. In an interview with Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures, he insisted: “They didn’t move anything. It’s very dangerous to do. It is very heavy — very, very heavy. It’s a very hard thing to do.” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also said he hadn’t seen any intelligence proving Iran relocated its uranium.

The search for the material is now a long process. Olli Heinonen, who served as the IAEA’s top inspector between 2005 and 2010, told Reuters that verifying the stockpile’s status could take months. “There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing,” he said. It’ll involve forensics, environmental samples, and complex recovery operations.

Iran says it’s done nothing wrong. But earlier this month, the IAEA’s 35-member Board of Governors passed a resolution accusing Iran of violating its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Tehran responded by voting in parliament to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. It also accused the watchdog of helping justify the airstrikes by providing diplomatic cover. The IAEA denies that claim.

Grossi admitted his team can’t confirm if Iran’s nuclear work is entirely peaceful. But he said there’s also no solid evidence of a coordinated weapons program. Still, without knowing what happened to that 400 kg of enriched uranium, governments are forced to make their own risk calls. Heinonen said transparency from the agency will be key. “Member states can then make their own risk assessments,” he said.

Still though, no matter which side is right, it wouldn’t end well for the world’s economy. 

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