Investors are betting big on Russia making a financial comeback, expecting Donald Trump’s presidency to lead to a deal with Moscow that will lift sanctions and restore access to global markets, according to a report from Bloomberg on Thursday.
In London, traders are actively searching for Russian debt, particularly Gazprom bonds, which were once untouchable but are now in demand among Middle Eastern family offices. Buyers see a massive opportunity in these deeply discounted assets, expecting them to surge if restrictions are lifted.
Financial institutions are also seeing increased interest in the Russian ruble, with money managers being approached about non-deliverable forwards, which is a kind of derivative that lets investors bet on Russia’s currency without directly holding Russian assets or dealing with sanctioned entities.
Evgeny Kogan, a Moscow-based investment banker, reportedly told Bloomberg that demand for Russian securities is rising fast.
“There’s an aggressive search for securities of Russian issuers around the world,” Kogan said on Thursday. “Investors in general are asking how quickly they can enter the Russian market.”
Traders move fast as Russia weighs ceasefire talks
Meanwhile, president Vladimir Putin is playing a different game. On Thursday, he publicly backed the US-led ceasefire proposal but refused to sign anything immediately, arguing that the plan needs further negotiation.
“The idea [of a ceasefire] itself is correct and we are certainly supporting it, but there are issues that need to be discussed. I think that we need to talk to our American colleagues and partners. Maybe call President Trump and discuss it together,” Putin said.
The White House-led ceasefire plan, which Kyiv agreed to on Tuesday, includes a 30-day truce that could be extended, and it also calls for prisoner exchanges, the release of civilian detainees, as well as the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
In exchange, Washington has already resumed intelligence-sharing and military aid with Ukraine. But Russia hasn’t committed to the deal, and key officials in Moscow remain skeptical. Yuri Ushakov, a senior Kremlin aide, said the plan would mostly serve Ukraine’s military.
“This is nothing else than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military, nothing more,” Ushakov said. “We believe that our goal is still a long-term peaceful settlement, we are striving for this. A peaceful settlement that takes into account the legitimate interests of our country—our concerns.”
Meanwhile, Trump is pressuring Moscow to accept the truce, warning that rejecting it could be financially devastating.
The US president also spoke about slamming tighter sanctions if Putin does not agree. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the “ball was in Russia’s court.”
US delegation in Moscow as Russia sets its own terms
A US delegation, led by Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, landed in Moscow on Thursday for ceasefire negotiations, but expectations are low. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Thursday that talks were happening but downplayed any immediate outcome.
“Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, we’ll tell you later. There have already been contacts,” Peskov said. Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, Putin has visited the Kursk region, a key battleground where Russian forces claim they are close to retaking lost territory.
The Russian president’s rare frontline appearance shows that the Kremlin is keeping military pressure on, even while discussing peace. It’s a classic power move.
Russia has also laid out red lines for any future peace deal, but officials in Moscow insist they will not accept the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine or the construction of Western military bases on Ukrainian soil.
Tim Ash, a senior strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, said that Putin is now in a difficult position. “Ukraine retook the initiative by appearing as the willing partner to a ceasefire deal, and now how is Putin going to play this?” Ash said to CNBC on Thursday. “If he fails to agree to a ceasefire, he then is revealed as the malign actor … and would risk the wrath of Trump.”
Volodymyr Dubovyk, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis, called the US-Ukraine meeting a potential turning point. “The question is: a breakthrough towards what exactly? The main questions remain the same as before the agreement. What will Moscow’s response be? I think that it may play along, pretending that it also wants peace,” Dubovyk said.
Other analysts believe that Washington’s patience may run out. Sam Greene, a Russia specialist at CEPA, warned that if Moscow refuses to accept the ceasefire, Trump’s administration may push Ukraine to make additional concessions. “With immediate Russian acquiescence to a ceasefire unlikely to be forthcoming, the White House’s frustration may lead to renewed demands for Ukrainian concessions,” Greene said.
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