Barclays analysts say a worst-case outcome in Google’s ongoing antitrust trial could cut Alphabet’s stock price by as much as 25%.
Last year, a federal judge ruled that Alphabet held a monopoly in online search and search advertising. The court will choose a fix in a few months. Analysts at Barclays examined possible outcomes in a note to clients on Monday, as reported by Business Insider.
In the most extreme scenario, a court could force Alphabet to sell Google Chrome to another company, such as Microsoft. Barclays calls this a “black swan” event, unlikely but potentially devastating.
If Chrome were divested, Barclays estimates that earnings per share could fall by more than 30%, since Chrome accounts for about 35% of Google’s search revenue and serves around 4 billion users. The bank believes this could drive Alphabet’s stock down at least 15% to 25%, noting that “no investors” it has spoken with are currently pricing in such an outcome.
“To our surprise, and this may have just been the style of the judge’s approach to put the Google attorneys on the spot, he indicated that this might be the ‘cleanest’ remedy of the lot,” Barclays analysts wrote.
News of a possible sale has already attracted interest. OpenAI has said it might consider buying Chrome if it ever goes on the market.
Google’s stock at risk if the court orders search index licensing or ends traffic deals
Barclays also outlined more likely remedies. One option is requiring Google to license its search index to competitors. That could reduce earnings per share by 10% to 15% and send the stock down about 5% to 10%.
Another possible remedy would phase out Google’s traffic acquisition contracts, agreements where Google pays third parties to send users to its search engine. Barclays estimates this move could shave 10% to 20% off earnings per share and cut the stock price by 5% to 10%.
The Department of Justice first sued Google in 2020, arguing the company had “subverted competition” for more than 15 years.
Alphabet has said it disagrees with the ruling and plans to appeal once the remedies are set. In a statement, the company warned that forcing the sale of Chrome and Android would harm businesses and raise cybersecurity and national security risks.
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