Central bank demand fuels gold’s bid for new highs with forecasts eyeing $5,000 in Q1

After a monster 64% rally in 2025, analysts are expecting gold to continue on, as a new Wall Street-FT survey shows the average forecast for gold this quarter is $4,610 per troy ounce, a nearly 7% rally from current all-time highs.

You want to know the reason behind the rampant optimism? Well, look no further than global central banks that are still buying, as if the supply is going to finish tomorrow.

The biggest prediction came from Nicky Shiels at MKS Pamp who proudly said on Friday that she sees gold hitting $5,400, a full 25% jump. She said most analysts have been “too timid” with their estimates.

Shiels believes the dollar is still weakening and says, “We are only in the early innings of the debasement cycle.” That’s why some big money is being moved into gold, she explained.

Forecasts vary wildly as analysts weigh investor behavior

Lina Thomas from Goldman Sachs expects $4,900 by the end of 2026, saying there’s “significant upside” if more investors get into gold, which they likely would, thanks to geopolitical uncertainties designed by none other than US President Donald Trump.

Lina’s model apparently shows that for every 0.01% increase in how much U.S. investors put into gold, the price could rise by around 1.4%. Right now, gold still makes up a small part of most portfolios.

But to be fair, no one saw 2025 coming. At the start of the year, analysts were guessing an average of $2,795. The actual year-end price was $4,314, as Cryptopolitan earlier reported.

Peter Taylor from Macquarie Group says gold is becoming “harder to predict.” He believes it’s being driven by investor feelings more than traditional supply and demand. His forecast is $4,200, one of the lower ones. He added, “We will see more macro news stability,” which might ease pressure on the market.

Meanwhile, Natasha Kaneva at JPMorgan said central banks could still buy around 755 tonnes of gold in 2026. That’s less than previous years, but still enough to push prices toward $6,000 by 2028, she said. Her forecast for end-2026 is $5,055, just behind Société Générale’s Michael Haigh, who sees $5,000.

Analysts split between breakout potential and warning signs

Rhona O’Connell from StoneX is the most bearish of the analysts surveyed. She thinks gold could fall to $3,500, saying the market is too crowded. “The majority of the tailwinds for the price have already been taken on board,” she said. Unless something unexpected happens, she doesn’t see another investment surge.

O’Connell also pointed to the court battle between the White House and Fed governor Lisa Cook, who’s fighting to keep her job after Trump tried to remove her and failed.

If the court rules in Cook’s favor, it will assure investors of the central bank independence, and that might push gold down.

Bernard Dahdah at Natixis also sounded cautious. He said jewelry demand is falling, and the Fed’s rate cuts are probably done after this year. His forecast is $4,200 for Q4 2026. “At current price levels, we are already seeing signs of demand destruction within the jewelry sector, and central bank demand has also slowed down,” he said. “We think 2026 will be a year of price consolidation.”