Goldman Sachs reaffirms AT&T buy rating, sees potential 48% upside

Goldman Sachs has maintained its bullish case on AT&T, stating that its shares may surge to over $40 a share over the long term, representing a potential upside of about 48% from where the stock currently trades.

Given the telecom’s underlying business fundamentals, strategic growth drivers, and defensive characteristics in a challenging overall economic backdrop, Goldman Sachs rates the stock as Buys and expects high upside ability in the next few years.

Meanwhile, analyst James Schneider has a near-term price target of $29, nearly 8% higher than Monday’s close of $26.96.

AT&T’s strong profits and generous dividend make it appealing to investors

AT&T’s stock has done well lately: it’s up 21% YTD and better than 60% YTD (dividends excluded). When combined with the telecommunications company’s dividend yield of 4.1%, that’s a recipe for a strong income investment.

Another big plus for AT&T is that it is less volatile than the market, at a beta of only 0.64. This indicates that the share price tends to be less sensitive to broad market moves, which is very attractive in uncertain economic times and makes stock perceived as a safe-haven investment.

AT&T’s wireless business is still a hit. The company has continued to add new cell phone subscribers as demand for its network services is strong. At the same time, it is moving customers to more expensive premium plans, which boosts average revenue per user (ARPU) for its services and supports hometown revenue growth.

Goldman Sachs then contends that such forces will quietly but inexorably raise earning estimates, which are the basis for the sustained revenue growth that the company has realized thus far.

AT&T, as the most aggressive fiber builder in the U.S., is expected to see a significant boost in broadband profitability over the next five years. The company has also aggressively pursued fibre assets to replace their DSL/U-verse copper-based networks, increasing future capacity upgrades relative to other forms of access volume and a potentially cheaper model all-in for the company.

Analysts also anticipate AT&T’s broadband revenue growth accelerating through the end of the decade as more residential customers migrate to fiber. Such focus will strengthen the firm’s broadband marketplace presence and balance sheet.

The FCC is streamlining regulations to accelerate fibre transitions and drive cost savings for telecom companies

Another major tailwind supporting AT&T’s fibre transition is regulatory tailwinds. The FCC is working on policies that will allow for faster decommissioning of legacy copper plants.

Should these regulatory changes take off, AT&T has the potential to accelerate its fibre transition, ramp up its capacity, and realize its $6 billion savings targets.

The transition from copper to fibre improves network efficiency and cuts maintenance and operating costs, both of which bode well for AT&T’s long-term fundamentals.

Goldman Sachs attributes its positive outlook on AT&T, first and foremost, to the company’s strong market position, high dividend yield, and solid business fundamentals. 

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