S&P 500 ends 2025 strong with double‑digit gains of +16% for 3rd year in a row as Bitcoin stays down

Stocks dropped again Wednesday, but not enough to dent what turned out to be a monster year. The S&P 500 slipped 0.74%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76%, and the Dow Jones lost 303.77 points, or 0.63%, a four-day losing streak into the close of 2025.

Still, it’s all in the green for the year. The S&P 500 locked in a 16.39% gain, its third straight double-digit annual advance.

The Nasdaq cruised ahead 20.36%, riding the wave of AI hype, while the Dow lagged behind with a 12.97% gain, hurt by having less tech exposure.

This closes the book on a wild comeback from the April meltdown, when President Donald Trump’s tariff blitz nearly nuked the rally.

The S&P 500 flirted with bear market territory, diving almost 19% from its February high and sinking below 5,000 for the first time since April 2024.

That selloff feels distant now. Over the last three years, the S&P 500 has rallied nearly 80%, with back-to-back gains of 24% in 2023, 23% in 2024, and now 16% in 2025. That’s the second strongest 3-year run since 2000, only trailing the 2019–2021 surge when the index exploded 90%.

The big question now? Can it do four in a row. The last time that happened was the 2003 to 2007 streak. It almost happened again from 2009 to 2014, but 2011 missed the cut by 0.04 points.

Looking ahead, strategists polled by CNBC still see another double-digit year coming in 2026, but many warn the S&P 500 may get stuck in a sideways grind until corporate earnings catch up to those high valuations.

Crypto regulation just got real messy. On Wednesday, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene blasted the passage of the GENIUS Act, warning it hands control to banks and regulators and opens the door to a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).

Marjorie said she voted against GENIUS, but backed the CLARITY Act, which she claims protects self-custody and blocks banks or exchanges from freezing or seizing user funds.

“The real danger,” she said, “is Digital ID, CBDC, and no self custody. If the government controls your keys, you won’t be able to run a tax revolt—you’ll only be able to comply or die.”

The GENIUS Act, now law, establishes the first federal framework for stablecoins, giving banks and regulators clear authority. The CLARITY Act, passed by the House but now stuck in the Senate, apparently aims to draw a line between crypto tokens as commodities or securities, giving the SEC and CFTC more defined roles.

Marjorie also pointed out that other bills, like the Anti-CBDC legislation, are still nowhere near the finish line.

Meanwhile, crypto bulls are watching gold and silver. Tommy Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, said on Wednesday: “Silver $SLV has gone parabolic this past month. Gold $GLD has gone parabolic this past year. Gold moves lead crypto.”

Tommy added, “If these massive commodities are surging, how can anyone still doubt crypto in 2026? $ETH $BTC”

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan’s daily reference rate at its strongest level since September 2024, doubling down a day after the currency broke below 7 per dollar in the onshore market.

That came on the heels of a similar breach offshore last week, where trading is less restricted.

The fixing rate, which defines the 2% band around which the onshore yuan can move, was jacked up more in December than at any time in the last 15 months, proving Beijing’s intent to cool one-way speculation.

But the yuan’s rally didn’t last. By Friday afternoon, the offshore yuan gave up gains of up to 0.2%, and was trading flat around 6.9913 per dollar. The onshore market followed suit.

State media is clearly on message. The People’s Daily ran a piece Wednesday urging traders to be “rational” about currency expectations, warning again against one-way bets. The PBOC’s own stability report last week stressed that while exchange-rate flexibility will continue, the central bank will guard hard against “overshooting risks.”

Volatility is back. Traders are pricing in wilder swings for the yuan, with implied one-month volatility climbing, and dollar-yuan positioning now the most oversold since 2018, based on RSI.

Meanwhile, in the metals world, Zijin Mining Group (China’s largest listed miner) announced record-smashing preliminary earnings for 2025. Net profit surged up to 62% to 52 billion yuan ($7.4 billion), boosted by rallying prices for copper, gold, and silver.

Zijin expects double-digit production growth in 2026: gold output is set to rise 17% to 105 tons, and copper by 10% to 1.2 million tons.

To round it all up, China has announced an extra 55% tariff on beef imports from countries like Brazil and the US once shipments cross set quotas, according to a Wednesday announcement from the commerce ministry.

The new rules kick in January 1st and will last three years.

India’s stock market is closing out 2025 with a rare double-edged story. On one side, local stocks are set to notch a 10th straight year of gains, ending the year up about 10% thanks to $81 billion in buying from domestic institutions.

But on the other, foreign investors bailed hard, pulling a record $17.9 billion for the year, including $1.7 billion in December alone.

The rate of foreign selling, the worst in nearly three decades, has made Indian equities the biggest underperformers in Asia this year.

The Nifty 50 Index, which rose 0.2% on Wednesday, is still down 0.8% in December, breaking a three-month winning streak and sealing its first monthly loss since August.

India’s rupee has tanked too, shaving off returns for overseas investors and dragging sentiment even lower. A key factor? No progress on a US trade deal, while America’s tariff wall against India remains the steepest in Asia. That’s kept the rupee testing record lows for months.

Despite the year-end bounce, the rebound that kicked off in September has lost steam. And heading into 2026, history isn’t on India’s side, cause the Nifty typically falls in January, with an average 1.1% decline.

Still, the Asian giant joins Japan and Argentina in a tiny global club of markets that have posted gains ten years in a row.

European markets opened soft on Wednesday, with the FTSE 100 expected to start 0.2% lower, Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 both seen down 0.3%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB flat, according to IG.

It’s a half-day session today across the region before everyone heads out for the New Year’s holiday. Markets will be shut Thursday and back Friday.

This comes right after a strong Tuesday, when Europe’s Stoxx 600 index hit a fresh record, climbing 0.7%. Mining stocks led the charge, with Fresnillo jumping 6%, and Anglo American, Antofagasta, and Glencore each tacking on about 3%.

In the US, things are less cheery. Dow futures are barely green, up 10 points or 0.02%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.04% and 0.09%, respectively.

This comes after three straight losing sessions: the S&P 500 closed down 0.14%, the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.24%, and the Dow Jones dropped 94.87 points, or 0.20%.

Even with that dip, 2025 has been a solid year for US stocks. The S&P 500 is up over 17% heading into the final hours, capping off a wild three-year run. It soared 24% in 2023, riding the ChatGPT boom, and climbed 23% in 2024. The AI hype lit up the market like nothing since the dot-com era.

But this year, that obsession started to cool off. The Magnificent Seven didn’t move as one. Alphabet crushed it, gaining more than 65% on bets it might outmaneuver OpenAI. But Amazon barely showed up, just 6% up year-to-date, dead last among the megacaps.

Global stocks slipped early Wednesday, closing out 2025 with a quiet pullback after a roaring year. US stock-index futures dropped 0.2%, pointing to more weakness ahead for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

Across Asia, equities dipped slightly too, though a bunch of markets had already closed for the year.

The MSCI All Country World Index, which tracks just about everything, still managed to climb 21% in 2025, riding on Fed rate cuts and the nonstop hype around AI.

The real shock came from silver, which plunged 6% today. Still, that drop barely dents the metal’s wild year, it’s up 147% overall, one of the top performers on the planet. Gold also had a killer year, with both metals on track for their biggest annual jumps since 1979.

Bitcoin didn’t share the same glory. It’s now set for its second annual decline in four years.

Oil prices, meanwhile, are limping into the new year. Crude is facing its deepest yearly drop since the 2020 crash, as a stubborn supply glut keeps traders on edge. Over in FX land, the US dollar index collapsed 8.1% this year, its steepest fall since 2017.

In Asia, currency moves are stealing the spotlight. The onshore yuan broke past the 7-per-dollar mark on Tuesday for the first time since 2023. Then on Wednesday, Xi Jinping popped up to say that China hit all its main economic targets for the year.