Federal Reserve officials are meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday in Washington, and Jerome Powell already spelled it out—interest rates are staying exactly where they are.
He’s brushing off the mounting political heat from President Donald Trump, who wants them lowered fast, and instead sticking to the plan: hold steady and watch the numbers.
Now Trump is pissed. He’s been hammering the Fed nonstop over its refusal to cut. The pressure’s coming not just from him but from members of his team who think the central bank is dragging its feet.
Powell, stuck in that corner, got backup on Friday when labor data showed the US added 177,000 jobs in April. That number gave the Fed more breathing room to justify keeping rates unchanged … at least for now.
Trump keeps up the attacks while Powell ignores him
A week ago, Trump blasted Powell on Truth Social, writing, “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.” A few days earlier, Trump had posted, “Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!”
But by the end of the week, after stocks took a hit, Trump told reporters he wasn’t really trying to fire Powell. That didn’t stop the speculation or the heat on the Fed.
Even if Trump does try to, he likely will not be able to fire Powell so easily. The law says Fed governors can only be removed for cause. Whether that rule covers the chair is still unclear.
But that hasn’t stopped the administration from taking steps to limit the Fed’s independence. It’s already in a legal fight to expand White House power over agencies like the Fed, especially ones with protections that make them harder to influence politically.
The difference between Trump and Powell is simple: Trump wants the key interest rate cut, and Powell doesn’t. Trump says inflation is cooling, so the Fed should make it cheaper to borrow. That would make credit cards, mortgages, and loans less expensive.
Powell’s focus is keeping prices stable, even if that means keeping borrowing costs high. Trump, who spent most of his business life living off loans, has always preferred low rates and made that clear since his first term.
The Fed has its eyes on inflation. Their go-to inflation gauge shows prices are easing, which normally supports a cut. But tariffs are rising. That could screw up any gains on inflation. So Powell and the rest of the board are pausing.
Bloomberg Economics predicts that Powell’s going to stay firm. Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou, and Chris G. Collins said in a note, “We expect Powell to push back against market pricing and signal a renewed priority on price stability.”
They also pointed out that Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Fed, and Adriana Kugler, a Fed governor, are worried that inflation expectations could be slipping. The April payroll boost only gives them more confidence to resist any rate cuts.
Global banks react while the Fed holds still
Other central banks are doing the opposite. The European Central Bank has started cutting rates again. They’re trying to stay ahead of slowing growth tied to US tariffs. But their most recent inflation report showed prices didn’t drop. One of the core measures actually went up.
Over in Canada, things are just as messy. The Bank of Canada ditched its usual forecast in April and put out two separate economic scenarios. They couldn’t even pick one baseline. Both paths depend on how the US-Canada tariff fight plays out, which shows how unpredictable the whole situation is right now.
This week doesn’t have a lot of big US economic reports coming. On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its April services index.
After that, attention will shift to jobless claims. The numbers for the week ending April 26 hit the highest mark since February, though that’s mostly because of New York’s spring recess messing with the stats.
The White House is also pushing ahead with efforts to reduce how much oversight the Fed has. That’s part of a broader strategy to give the presidency more control over independent regulators.
They’ve already launched legal action targeting the protections that keep those agencies free from political pressure. And that includes the Fed.
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