LIVE: Chair Powell confirms that he will stay at the Fed after his term ends next month

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75% today, the third straight pause this year, as the CME FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of no change before the announcement.

But perhaps the bigger attraction on the Floor today is what Chairman Jerome Powell says after the meeting, especially with bettors already trying to price in when he leaves the Fed.

On Kalshi, bettors give Jerome a 30% chance of resigning from the Fed Board of Governors by June, but the odds rise to 66% by August and 81% by the end of the year.

Powell said after the March FOMC meeting that he would not step down as governor until the Department of Justice finished its criminal inquiry into him. The DOJ dropped that probe on Friday, and Kalshi odds for a June resignation jumped to almost 54.5% right after that, before falling again in the days since.

Polymarket traders are reading the timing differently. They now give an 87% chance that Powell steps aside between May 15 and May 22, making today’s press conference even more important.

Powell is set to speak to reporters after the Fed decision in what could be his last meeting as Fed chair if President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, gets Senate approval before the Fed’s next meeting in mid-June. Kevin’s nomination moved forward through the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning.

Some observers worry Kevin was picked to push Trump’s view on rates, though Kevin has said he supports the Fed’s independence.

If Powell stays until August, he would remain through two more meetings, one in June and another in late July. His term as a Fed governor runs until 2028.