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LIVE: Chair Powell confirms that he will stay at the Fed after his term ends next month


- The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking its third straight pause of the year.
- Powell said he will stay on as Fed governor after his chair term ends on May 15, while he waits for the investigation to fully close.
- Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination advanced in a 13-11 party-line vote, with Democrats warning about Fed independence under Trump.
- Powell said higher oil and gas prices could hurt inflation and GDP, while the Fed stays near neutral and waits before moving rates again.
Live Reporting
Powell said the Fed still expects tariffs to create a one-time jump in prices, not a lasting inflation shock.
Powell said policymakers have worked for a long time with the view that tariffs would lift prices once, then fade from the inflation data. He said the Fed now expects that process to show up over the next two quarters.
Powell was also asked about Kevin Warsh and the Fed transition. Powell said he has not seen Kevin since January, but expects the handoff to be normal and standard.
Powell then said the risk of rising oil prices pushing into core inflation is real, but the Fed still needs more time to see how it plays out.
Powell said the current policy setting is at the upper end of neutral, or possibly slightly restrictive. He said that gives the Fed room to wait before making its next move.
Powell also addressed the split inside the Fed after officials kept rates unchanged. He said several policymakers are concerned about cutting interest rates while inflation remains a problem.
That concern showed up in the latest vote. Some officials opposed language they viewed as keeping a bias toward future rate cuts.
Powell said it was easy to understand that position, given the latest inflation data and the risk that more cuts could come too soon.
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates at 3.50% to 3.75% today, the third straight pause this year, as the CME FedWatch tool shows a 100% probability of no change before the announcement.
But perhaps the bigger attraction on the Floor today is what Chairman Jerome Powell says after the meeting, especially with bettors already trying to price in when he leaves the Fed.
On Kalshi, bettors give Jerome a 30% chance of resigning from the Fed Board of Governors by June, but the odds rise to 66% by August and 81% by the end of the year.
Powell said after the March FOMC meeting that he would not step down as governor until the Department of Justice finished its criminal inquiry into him. The DOJ dropped that probe on Friday, and Kalshi odds for a June resignation jumped to almost 54.5% right after that, before falling again in the days since.
Polymarket traders are reading the timing differently. They now give an 87% chance that Powell steps aside between May 15 and May 22, making today’s press conference even more important.
Powell is set to speak to reporters after the Fed decision in what could be his last meeting as Fed chair if President Donald Trump’s nominee, Kevin Warsh, gets Senate approval before the Fed’s next meeting in mid-June. Kevin’s nomination moved forward through the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning.
Some observers worry Kevin was picked to push Trump’s view on rates, though Kevin has said he supports the Fed’s independence.
If Powell stays until August, he would remain through two more meetings, one in June and another in late July. His term as a Fed governor runs until 2028.
What to know
The Fed kept rates unchanged, but Powell’s future, Warsh’s nomination, rising energy prices, and the split inside the Fed now drive the story.
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