Officials say Poland’s recent tilt toward rightwing politics has threatened the European Union’s trade ambitions and cast doubt on the billions of euros in funding set aside for Warsaw.
The surprise election of nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki as president has alarmed Brussels, according to a recent report by the Financial Times. It has raised concerns that the pro-EU government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk could be undercut, reforms needed to unlock EU cash may stall, and Poland might help block a major trade agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc.
Nawrocki, a former football hooligan with no government experience, ran on a “Poland First” platform. He openly criticized EU policies on topics such as climate change, support for Ukraine, and social issues. “Let’s help others, but let’s take care of our own citizens first,” Nawrocki declared during the campaign.
Orsolya Raczova, an analyst focusing on Central and Eastern Europe at Eurasia Group, said that Tusk’s efforts to overhaul Poland’s judiciary “will be paralyzed… Nawrocki will prevent him from implementing an overhaul of the judiciary in line with EU demands.”
Raczova added that the new president is likely to join other nationalist leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, in pushing back against Brussels.
When Tusk took office as prime minister in October 2023, his return to power was hailed in Brussels as a chance to restore Poland’s more pro-EU stance.
EU funding at risk as judiciary reform blocked by veto
In 2024, after Tusk’s government pledged to amend the judiciary system so it met EU requirements, the European Commission released €137 billion in funds that had been set aside for Poland.
Of that sum, Brussels has already paid out over €20 billion from Poland’s €60 billion share of the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund. It has also sent nearly €7 billion of the €76.5 billion in regular regional funds.
Outgoing President Andrzej Duda vetoed the reforms, and Nawrocki has promised to continue blocking them once he takes office in August.
Although the Polish president has limited executive power, the office can block legislation passed by parliament and can nominate key state officials, including the central bank governor.
If Tusk wants to override a veto from Nawrocki, he would need a three-fifths majority in parliament, a level he cannot reach without votes from the PiS party.
Daniel Freund, a Green member of the European Parliament, argued that the Commission released funds to Poland “prematurely.”
A European Commission spokesperson responded by saying, “We cannot speculate about future decisions of the Polish president-elect.” The spokesperson added, “We are confident that the reforms that have been started by the Polish government will be pursued and will be continued,” and that Brussels would “seek good cooperation” with Nawrocki once he assumes office.
One example is the Mercosur trade deal, which Tusk supports. Polish farmers fear that cheaper food imports from South America could undercut them and lower safety standards in the EU.
The Polish Farmers’ Party represents farmers and is in Tusk’s coalition. France has already said it won’t approve the Mercosur deal, and Ireland, Austria, and the Netherlands remain skeptical. If Poland blocks it too, there won’t be enough votes to approve the deal.
Nawrocki aligns with other anti-EU leaders
Nawrocki will stand alongside Orbán in Hungary and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico as a leading anti-EU voice in the region. His victory also comes ahead of the Czech Republic’s parliamentary election in October, where populist leader Andrej Babiš is leading in opinion polls.
Officials worry that anti-Brussels sentiment is growing among voters in the European Union’s eastern member states.
Though Nawrocki criticized EU financial and military aid to Ukraine during his campaign, analysts believe his stance will not change Poland’s broadly pro-Kyiv policy. Widespread opposition to Russia’s war across Poland makes it unlikely that the new president would alter that course. Still, other domestic issues tied to pro-EU policies will likely suffer.
Meanwhile, across Europe’s Eurosceptic political circles, Nawrocki’s win was celebrated. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s far-right deputy prime minister, called the result “great news from Poland.”
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