Counterpoint Research said a global DRAM crunch caused by nonstop AI demand will raise smartphone prices in 2026 and cut shipments.
The firm said memory buyers for AI data centers are crowding out phone makers as Nvidia systems keep pulling huge volumes of parts built by SK Hynix and Samsung.
Counterpoint said the pressure from AI players is now strong enough to distort the normal supply chain for consumer devices. The group said this shift will hit the market even as President Trump heads into another year with tech firms already dealing with higher production costs.
Counterpoint said shipments could fall 2.1% next year after earlier expectations of steady or improving growth. The note said shipment data does not show sales, but it measures demand because it tracks how many units go to stores and other channels.
The group said the stress starts with memory parts, and the price jumps will reach consumers as producers try to protect margins. It said average selling prices could rise 6.9% in 2026 after a previous forecast of 3.6%.
Chip shortage hits all price tiers
Counterpoint said specific chokepoints in the semiconductor chain are forcing up costs for every supplier. The team said DRAM used in AI servers is also a core piece inside phones, and the same product now faces demand levels far above supply.
DRAM pricing has surged through the year, and Counterpoint said the effect is already visible in the final device costs.
The note said low-end phones priced under $200 now face a 20% to 30% rise in their bill of materials since the start of the year. The firm said mid-range and high-end devices saw 10% to 15% higher material costs.
Counterpoint added that “memory prices could rise another 40% through Q2 2026, resulting in BoM costs increasing anywhere between 8% and over 15% above current elevated levels.”
Counterpoint said companies will likely pass those higher costs to buyers. The group said some firms may cut component quality by using weaker camera parts, cheaper displays or older audio hardware.
Others may reuse old components inside new models. Counterpoint said many brands will also push customers toward higher-priced phones to protect revenue.
Research director MS Hwang said “Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters.”
Hwang added that Chinese brands in the mid-to-low tier will feel stronger pressure because they have less room to balance market share and profit. Hwang said this will “play out especially” among those players as they face rising material costs.
Counterpoint said continued AI data-center build-outs are pulling huge volumes of memory into Nvidia-based systems.
The note said this direct link explains why prices for DRAM and other memory parts are rising so fast, and why phone makers are now bracing for a tough 2026.
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