China is loading up on cheap Russian oil while Donald Trump hammers India with new trade tariffs for doing the exact same thing. This split approach is already reshaping who buys what, and where it’s going.
According to Bloomberg, refiners in China are now importing nearly double the amount of Urals crude this August compared to their 2025 average. These barrels, coming from Russia’s western Black Sea and Baltic ports, are landing in Chinese hands just as India’s intake collapses under pressure from Washington.
Before Trump turned up the heat, India had been taking an average of 1.18 million barrels a day of Russian crude. But since the tariff hikes, those shipments have plunged to just 400,000 barrels a day.
On the other end, China (which usually sticks to barrels from Russia’s Far East) is now grabbing about 75,000 barrels a day of Urals. That’s up from their year-to-date daily average of 40,000 barrels, giving Chinese refiners more flexibility and more oil.
Trump blocks India but lets China keep buying
The White House isn’t touching China right now. Trump, who’s using energy trade as leverage in talks to end the war in Ukraine, said last Friday that he would hold off on raising tariffs on Chinese goods, despite Beijing’s growing Russian oil imports.
The reason, he said, was progress in negotiations with Vladimir Putin. That same day, his trade adviser Peter Navarro told reporters India’s buying had been “opportunistic and deeply corrosive,” while admitting that going after China would hurt the U.S. more than help.
Navarro’s comments made it clear that Trump’s team knows their limits. So instead of slapping China, they’re leaning on India. “One thing is certain: Trump will not do things which he knows he cannot achieve,” said Mukesh Sahdev, head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy. “Putting pressure on India, he has certainly achieved and he can make an impact, but putting pressure on China? Probably not.”
China’s refiners aren’t wasting the opportunity. They’ve already picked up around 10 to 15 cargoes of Urals crude for October and November deliveries, based on data from Kpler and Energy Aspects. Those numbers are well above the normal volume.
Jianan Sun, an analyst at Energy Aspects, said China is in a solid position to keep buying. He said Urals crude is still cheap enough to beat out Middle Eastern grades, which gives Chinese buyers an edge.
Tankers stack up near Chinese ports as Indian buyers freeze
Some of the oil has already arrived. Two large tankers, Georgy Maslov and Zenith, each carrying 1 million barrels of Urals crude, are now sitting off the coast of Zhoushan. That area hosts Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical Co. and is close to major strategic storage.
More ships are expected to follow in the coming weeks as long as prices remain in China’s favor. Muyu Xu, senior crude analyst at Kpler, said, “I won’t be surprised to see more November-delivered cargoes to be bought by the Chinese in the coming days” if the price holds.
Right now, the Urals grade is being offered at just $1 per barrel above Dated Brent, and no further discounts are being given. Traders say Chinese demand alone is enough to hold prices steady.
Back in India, refiners are still receiving offers for Urals but haven’t made new purchases. The costs are no longer workable under Trump’s new tariffs, and Indian processors are choosing to wait it out. Meanwhile, China is doing the exact opposite; buying more and storing what India can’t take.
Sahdev said the oil that India is no longer buying has to go somewhere. “Excess Russian barrels have to be removed, and those barrels can only be removed by China into storage,” he said. “Without China buying, the Russian crude may start discounting more to get new buyers.”
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