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Bitcoin price prediction: BTC/USDT has $16,000 in sight but bears grow stronger

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  • At the time of writing, BTC/USDT sits at 15,820.00 USD, gaining 3.42% from today’s open of 15,297.21 USD.
  • Today’s gains have been supported by trading volume which doubled, on average, between 10:00 am and the time of writing.
  • BTC/USDT still has some room to the upside if key indicators hold otherwise the bears could reverse today’s gains.

Note: The analyses below use Binance‘s BTC/USDT pair and TradingView’s BTC/USDT 30m (Binance) chart.

Today’s overview

Bitcoin (BTC) opened today’s trading at 15,297.21 USD, with a high of 15,850.00 USD (+3.61%) and a low of 15,272.69 USD. At the time of writing, BTC/USDT has settled at 15,820.00 USD (+3.42%), sitting 1.85% above the high/low average of 15,561.64 USD. 

The total trading volume for BTC/USDT up until the time of writing is 53,150 BTC, compared to 52,798 BTC for the same period yesterday, representing a slight gain of 0.66%. 

The historical Volatility Index (HVI) on the 1D reads 73.58 (medium) at the time of writing compared to 72.48 on yesterday’s close.

Price analysis

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC/USDT has $16,000 in sight but bears grow stronger 1

In the first 30 minutes of trading, BTC/USDT rose from open to 15,474.63 USD descending to a new support zone of 15,357.49 USD – 15,387.71 USD (see ‘Support Zone’ on chart above) until around 09:30 am. The 10:00 am candlestick saw a breakout above this support zone which continued to the price at the time of writing (see blue circle on chart above).

Volume analysis

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC/USDT has $16,000 in sight but bears grow stronger 2

Between open and 09:30 am, the average trading volume per candlestick (30m) was 1,057.5 BTC, with the moving-mean at 09:30 am sitting at 1068 BTC. The breakout candlestick at 10:00 am saw a spike in trading volume to 2,373 BTC, with the majority of candlestick volume up until the time of writing closing above the moving-mean.

The average trading volume per candlestick more than doubled in this period to 2,876 BTC, showing bullish support for the breakout, with the moving-mean settling at 2,016 BTC at the time of writing.

On Balance Volume (OBV) has trended upwards since opening with no signs of reversing. Accumulation/Distribution (Acc/Distr) followed the same trend but has been rounding off over the past few hours, suggesting trading volume in support of the trend is weakening (see chart above).

Volatility analysis

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC/USDT has $16,000 in sight but bears grow stronger 3

The HVI oscillated between 5.4 and 6.4 (low-medium) in the first few hours after opening (see red arrow on chart) before dropping to 2.6. It settled between 2.6 and 3.2 (low) until around 09:30 am (see green arrow on chart). 

At 10:00 am, following the breakout, HVI rose again to 4.7 (see blue arrow on chart) and maintaining above the 5.0 level (medium), rising to above 7.0 at the time of writing. 

Although trading has seen the HVI move between 2.6 and 7 up until the time of writing, anything below 10.0 is either medium (5.0 – 10.0) or low (below 5.0) volatility which suggests the current trend could still be in play.

Prediction

If price holds above the high/low average, trading volume per candlestick stays above the average and the acc/distr indicator noticeably trends to the upside again, BTC/USDT will continue its bullish trajectory, likely touching or breaking through the psychological level of $16,000 USD where the next resistance lies. 

However, if trading volume per candlestick dips below the average for at least 10 candlesticks and acc/distr line continues to round over the same period, with HVI breaking 10.0, BTC/USDT will see some downside to a temporary support between 15,619.07 and 15,557.85. 

This more bearish case would see today’s gains reversed and BTC/USDT falling to its earlier support zone.

In the news

Bitcoin’s transaction fees have fallen to an average of $7.80 per transaction after congestion caused by Mempool clears.

A top bank regulator explains benefits of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to the US Senate.

The World Economic Forum has called blockchain the key to sustainable digital finance.

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Emmanuel Young

Emmanuel Young

Having entered the cryptoworld in 2013, Emmanuel is a broker, investor and crypto enthusiast. He has contributed to a number of crypto related projects and enterprise and sees the industry as the future of finance.

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