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BTC is moving, but from older holders to new wallets

In this post:

  • BTC is changing hands, as older wallets still lock in profits, while coins are shifting to newer holders.
  • Institutions offer support due to their long-term accumulation and holding, but derivative markets remain volatile.
  • Trading sentiment shifted to fear again, despite signs of accumulation and robust spot demand.

BTC has shown mixed signs of accumulation and buying, leading to the relatively flat price action in the past month. However, Bitcoins continue to flow from older wallets into newer cohorts, as long-term holders realize profits. 

Bitcoin (BTC) continues with its sideways price action, on a mix of buying and selling. The leading coin is in an accumulation range, yet it has struggled to break into a new price range despite ongoing coin scarcity. 

Currently, BTC has absorbed most of the short-term distribution and profit-taking, and is back in the accumulation range, according to Glassnode. However, older whales are still active, while the rotation to new wallets is taking time. 

Large BTC holders are responsible for relative stability

Until recently, most of the large BTC holders were trending toward coin distribution before switching to overall accumulation. 

Whale holders are closely watched, as they absorb the known sources of accessible BTC, including exchange reserves, newly mined coins, and reserves on OTC markets.

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The recent shift of ownership is seen as the main factor behind the relatively ‘boring’ price action, mostly driven by large-scale holders. Currently, every BTC sold finds a buyer, but wallet cohorts of over 12 months may be willing to sell and lock in their sizeable profits. 

Previous on-chain observations suggest prices above $90,000 per BTC are in the provenance of whales and institutions, with retail remaining a relatively small factor. The trend of distribution from the largest wallets to mid-range wallets with 100 to 1,000 BTC continues.

Based on the Rainbow chart, Bitcoin is even more affordable, with a strong buy indicator, with the potential for accumulation at even higher prices. 

The distribution to wallets also remains less transparent after the inflow of institutions. Some continue to hold through Coinbase Custody, while other large holders control multiple wallets with smaller amounts of BTC. 

Derivative traders switch to fearful sentiment

Demand from institutions works independently of derivative markets. Trading BTC on paper retains its different price mechanisms, driven by leveraged long and short positions. While spot traders and whales are buying up BTC, derivative traders are showing fearful behavior, shifting from extreme greed in May back into the fear range. 

According to CryptoQuant, the recent cycle still shows strong rallies, which are then tempered by a downward move. The shift may be a sign of big leveraged players trying to cool the market and retain relatively stable and high price levels to extend institutional adoption. 

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In the coming days, derivative traders set up a new range for Bitcoin between $100,000 and $105,000. Any price moves may lead to liquidations of the most numerous positions around those price levels. 

BTC is changing hands from older holders to new wallets
BTC derivative traders are still limited by the new range of liquidity, this time between $100,000 and $105,000. | Source: Coinglass

Derivative traders also partially rely on long-term whales, ETFs and corporate buyers for a deep support level. Even with the most recent acquisitions, some of the institutional buyers have an average acquisition price as low as $67,000. 

Miners have produced coins at breakeven and can also afford to hold their reserves at over 1.9M coins. Corporate holders as a whole bought up 3.39M coins, with more acquisitions announced almost daily, suggesting a long-term confidence and a relatively low risk of capitulation. 

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Disclaimer. The information provided is not trading advice. Cryptopolitan.com holds no liability for any investments made based on the information provided on this page. We strongly recommend independent research and/or consultation with a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.

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