Bitcoin’s been stuck. This week, it couldn’t push past $65,000 and fell back to the $58,000 to $60,000 range. Last week’s gains? Gone. Market watchers saw this coming, especially with four straight days of Bitcoin spot ETF outflows.
Even BlackRock’s IBIT recorded a $13.5 million outflow — its first in nearly four months. The sentiments aren’t overtly positive, but it’s not a disaster either.
Why is this happening? Blame the macro environment. The U.S. inflation numbers came in a bit softer than expected — 2.5% year-over-year instead of the 2.6% that analysts were predicting.
That nudges the Federal Reserve towards a dovish stance in the next quarter. Equities are soaring, with the Dow hitting a record high, but Bitcoin seems unmoved by all this. It’s like the crypto market is just waiting for something big to happen before it moves.
The upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report might do something, though. If the numbers come in weaker than expected, it could make a strong case for a U.S. rate cut in Q4. The odds? About 33% for a 25 basis point cut, and 67% for a 50 basis point cut. But again, what does it do for Bitcoin? Hard to say.
Analyst Matthew Hyland thinks Bitcoin needs to make a “higher high” to stay in its current uptrend. He points out that:
“We really need to start to bounce out of this and make a higher high to further confirm that we are in this uptrend that we’ve been in since August.”
It’s not all bad either. If Bitcoin falls below $57,700, it needs to hold at $56,000. “If we were to lose this $56K level, that would be a lower low,” Matthew added.
Matthew also mentioned that since August, Bitcoin has been in a cycle of “higher lows and higher highs.” But this pattern isn’t foolproof. Both July and August started with some serious pullbacks, showing how volatile the market can get.
And with the election looming, things aren’t going to get less chaotic. Matthew predicts we’ll “see some chop” leading up to the election, meaning more of this back-and-forth action we’re stuck in now.
Historically, September has always been the worst month for Bitcoin. No big moves, just sideways action. If you’re hoping for a breakout, you might be waiting a while.
At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $59,141 — right in the middle of the range. It’s a waiting game, and patience is the name of it.
