Bitcoin is suffering from success. Buying pressure has overwhelmed both the network and the market as the bulls go on a crazy spree fueled by Bitcoin-friendly Donald Trump surviving an assassination attempt.
Trump is the catalyst
According to QCP Capital, the failed attempt on Trump’s life at the start of the weekend set off a rally in crypto prices. Strong momentum continued into the Monday Asia session, driven by aggressive buying of Bitcoin on Coinbase.
This flow is unusual for Sunday evening in the U.S. QCP believes the market is pricing in a Trump win in the coming election, similar to Reagan after a failed assassination attempt in 1981. Trump’s pro-crypto campaign is driving this bullish sentiment.
The market was already set for a rally. The German government had exhausted their supply, and large hedge funds were aggressively buying calls last week. Trump’s news was the perfect trigger for a market eager to go long.
There’s a big question now: will this bullish trend continue? QCP said:
“We’ve started to see some institutional players hedging the downside on the rally by buying near-dated puts.”
There’s a possibility the US market might fade this move instead. Despite this, QCP Capital maintains a medium-term bull run. There’s continued large demand from BTC spot ETF inflows, and Ethereum spot ETF launch is expected to act as a catalyst.
QCP also shared a new trading strategy: the BTC Win-Range. If you believe Bitcoin will be between $75k and $85k by the end of September, you can profit five times by deploying a BTC 75/85k September Win-Range.
According to the analysts, the payout is 5x, with maturity on September 27, within the $75k to $85k range.
On-chain data and technicals support bulls
Latest metrics from IntoTheBlock show a largely bullish environment for Bitcoin. 87% of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, with only 13% breaking even and a negligible percentage at a loss. This is a highly favorable market conditions for investors.
The overall sentiment is “Mostly Bullish,” with 4 bullish signals, 3 neutral, and no bearish signals. Bitcoin’s price chart also shows the massive uptick in bullish activity, with prices soaring to $62,956 at press time.
The chart shows Bitcoin’s price well above the 20-day EMA of $60,070.21, the 50-day EMA of $62,312.29, and the 100-day EMA of $62,578.10.
The crossing of these EMAs is a strong bullish signal, meaning the bulls are firmly in control. The 200-day EMA at $58,250.37 provides support.
The Bollinger Bands show Bitcoin’s price moving towards the upper band at $63,973.18, meaning the crypto diva is entering overbought territory.
But it also hints at a potential short-term pullback as traders could decide to start taking profits any moment now. The MACD (12, 26, close) further supports the bulls.
The MACD line at 668.58 has crossed above the signal line at -1,098.07, a classic bullish signal riding off of the increasing buying momentum. The histogram has also turned positive, adding confidence that the upward trend may continue.
The RSI (14, close) at 57.27 means that Bitcoin is overbought, but still has some room to grow. Unlike the MACD, the RSI tells us that the strong buying pressure will not reach an extreme where a reversal would be imminent.
However, continued upward movement could still push the RSI further into the overbought territory. So, the possibility of a correction is still there.
Reporting and analysis by Jai Hamid
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