Bitcoin just made its fourth new all-time high today, sitting pretty at $86,206 as of press time. The crypto market is now worth over $3 trillion for the first time in history, surging on the back of President Donald Trump’s election victory.
Ethereum also managed to finally break above $3,300 for the first time in way too long. But stablecoins USDT and USDC have depegged from the US dollar, staying around $0.993 each right now.
Retail traders flood the options market
The stock market’s in on it too. Retail traders — that’s your everyday investors, the Reddit-fueled, Robinhood-wielding crowd — are hitting the options market hard.
According to JPMorgan, retail traders made up a record 20% of the options market last week, a crazy jump from early 2022 when it was around 13%. These are levels not seen since the pandemic’s trading frenzy back in 2020, but this time it’s even bigger.
And the S&P 500? Not taking a back seat here. It’s climbed a solid 26% this year, notching up 50 new all-time highs. That’s the second-highest streak in seven years. So yeah, people are in the mood to risk it all — and it’s like the perfect storm for Bitcoin to shine.
This “Trump trades” frenzy has been brewing for a while, and the election win has finally set it off. Trump’s been open about his crypto-friendly stance throughout his campaign, and now, Bitcoin’s feeling the effect.
After his win, Bitcoin spiked another 23%, and analysts say this is a chart-backed rally, and if you’re into technical analysis, here’s the juice: we’re talking about a breakout to new all-time highs, ending a seven-month correction phase and flipping into what experts are calling a “bullish intermediate-term development.”
Now, let’s get geeky for a sec. The weekly MACD — a momentum indicator for all you non-TA nerds — turned positive, flashing a buy signal weeks before the election. With this breakout, Bitcoin is in a technical sweet spot, absorbing those overbought conditions.
The monthly chart is even more bullish, showing what they call a “cup-and-handle formation.” Yeah, it sounds ridiculous, but it’s serious stuff for traders, and it suggests that the trend isn’t cooling off anytime soon. There’s also a new “pop” in the stochastic oscillator, hinting that Bitcoin’s got another wave of gains in store.
When you’re in uncharted territory, all you can do is project, and right now, projections are hitting about $98,000. Former resistance around $73,800 has turned into support, giving investors confidence to keep riding this wave.
Katie Stockton from Fairlead Strategies even recommends letting Bitcoin cool off just a bit in the short term but says the long-term trend is looking hotter than ever.
While Trump’s victory and Bitcoin’s rally are hogging the headlines, something else happened that’s pretty damn symbolic. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has officially outpaced the iShares Gold Trust (IAU) in assets under management (AUM).
FactSet reports that as of Friday, IBIT had about $34.3 billion in AUM, nudging just ahead of IAU’s $33 billion. This is a sign that Bitcoin is taking gold’s place as the ultimate store of value, at least in the eyes of some big-time investors.
As of Monday morning, IBIT was up around 6%. In the past week, it’s raked in about $1 billion in inflows, pushing the total to over $30 billion since January. Still, it’s trailing the biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), which holds about $30 billion more.
Trump’s pro-crypto promises are fueling all this hype. On the campaign trail, he pledged to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and vowed to keep all Bitcoin mining within American borders. He even went as far as saying he’d remove SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who’s been anything but friendly to the crypto world.
Now, whether or not he has the power to do that is up for debate, but just the idea has got Bitcoin bulls on fire. With the administration’s support, speculators are betting on a friendly regulatory climate, maybe even a federal crypto reserve fund.
Binance and FTX clash in billion-dollar legal fight
It wouldn’t be a crypto story without some drama, and Binance and FTX are delivering just that. FTX, the collapsed crypto exchange, has slapped Binance with a $1.8 billion lawsuit. They’re accusing Binance and its former CEO, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), of a “fraudulent” share deal that they say was funded largely by stolen customer money.
The backstory is wild. In July 2021, Binance sold its 20% stake in FTX back to the company for $1.76 billion, a deal they claim should never have happened.
FTX argues that the payment came from customers’ deposits without consent, essentially turning it into what they’re calling a “constructive fraudulent transaction.” FTX’s bankruptcy estate wants that money back, and they’re coming in hot with a lawsuit filed in Delaware.
Sam Bankman-Fried, former CEO of FTX, allegedly directed his Alameda Research head Caroline Ellison to use around $1 billion of customer funds to finance this buyback. Bankman-Fried, who’s now serving 25 years in prison for fraud, is accused of lying to cover up FTX’s insolvency and give a false signal of stability.
Meanwhile, CZ, who left Binance after facing his own legal troubles — including a $4.3 billion penalty from U.S. authorities — is still holding about 90% of Binance.
So, where’s Bitcoin headed next? Analysts are betting it’s going even higher, possibly reaching the coveted $100,000 mark by the end of the year. With all the ETF action and Trump’s election hype, momentum’s on Bitcoin’s side.
Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, calls the post-election atmosphere “euphoria.” Streeter said, “His pledge to go all in on crypto has sent Bitcoin to fresh heady heights.”
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