Bitcoin suffers its first October monthly loss in seven years

Bitcoin ended October lower for the first time since 2018, breaking a seven-year run of gains in a month traders once treated like free profit season, according to data from CoinGecko.

The OG crypto closed the month down about 5% as risk appetite weakened, leverage was wiped out, and uncertainty hit global markets.

The decline came in a month that carried both a new all-time high and the largest liquidation event in crypto history.

President Donald Trump had announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports and vowed curbs on critical software exports needed for AI, EVs, and Robotics.

Record liquidation compresses crypto trading

Bitcoin, which had just broken above $126,000, dropped to $104,782.88 during the October 10–11 window. Adam McCarthy, senior research analyst at Kaiko, said cryptocurrencies entered October while tracking stocks and gold near highs, but when uncertainty hit, “they didn’t rotate back into bitcoin en masse.”

Adam said this shows how concentrated the crypto market still is, explaining that “it’s bitcoin and ether, and even those can still have 10% drawdowns in 15, 20 minutes.”

That event erased leveraged positions across centralized platforms and trading desks, forcing both retail and professional traders to unwind exposure, leaving crypto wallets sidelined and order books thinner than usual.

Then, the Federal Reserve resisted market expectations for further rate cuts this year, after the ongoing government shutdown blocked access to key economic data releases that traders normally use to gauge monetary direction. Without those indicators, traders are staying cautious while large buyers hold back.

Concern extended outside crypto, as JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted that US stocks will face a meaningful correction within six months to two years.

Jake Ostrovskis, head of the over-the-counter desk at Wintermute, said, “participants remain hesitant as they process what has become the largest liquidation event on record. This caution persists amid ongoing speculation about specific vulnerabilities that may still exist in the system.”

Bitcoin remains positive for the year as broader markets stay elevated

Even with the October decline, Bitcoin remains up more than 16% year-to-date, holding gains tied to Trump’s stance on crypto.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has risen 16.3% this year to 6,840, gaining nearly 2,000 points from its April 7 low during the tariff-panic period. Including dividends, its return sits above 17%.

Even the staid 60/40 stock-bond portfolio, as represented by the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund, has logged a total return of 13.1% this year, trouncing its long-term average just above 8%.

On a three-year trailing basis, the S&P 500 has seen an annualized return of 22.8%, placing it within the top 10% of historical three-year periods going as far back as 1945, according to data from CNBC.

The S&P has now gone 130 trading days without a 5% pullback, making this one of the only 3 longest uninterrupted stretches in 44 years.

And the first 5% pullback, whenever it comes, has typically not marked the ultimate top of a bull market; usually, it’s bought for at least a final upward move. The current hot streak is, of course, now at the entry point of the best seasonal window of the year, on average.