Bitcoin is clawing its way to $70,000, shaking off its past correlation with the so-called “Trump Trade.” Donald Trump’s pro-crypto image gained steam following his appearance on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast.
That episode racked up over 32 million views, and Polymarket odds on Trump’s win shot to 66%. Yet, Bitcoin isn’t following the political buzz. It’s up 8% in October, which is far below its typical 21% for “Uptober.” It makes this Bitcoin’s weakest October in a decade.
With the election around the corner, Bitcoin’s price remains in limbo. Analysts eye the Core PCE and NFP reports due Thursday and Friday, but Bitcoin isn’t expected to react much.
Hitting $70K would be a win, but any pullback might keep BTC within a narrow range, wedged between $64,000 and $67,000.
For now, BTC total perpetual open interest (OI) across exchanges is at $27 billion, near its yearly peak. A $70K breakout could attract leveraged longs and push Bitcoin into all-time high territory.
Bitcoin eyes $70K as investors weigh election impact
On Friday, the Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the price difference between BTC on Coinbase and global exchanges, hit a yearly low of -0.20.
That drop signals increasing selling pressure from retail investors in the U.S., contrasting with institutional flows.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, popular among institutional investors, saw a record $402 million inflow the same day. High-stakes investors aren’t staying quiet either.
Emory University recently allocated $15 million to a spot Bitcoin ETF, signaling trust in Bitcoin’s potential regardless of short-term turbulence.
But retail skepticism lingers, especially with mixed signals from the election polls. A CBS News/YouGov poll shows a tight race, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 49% among likely voters. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s odds lean toward Trump with a 66.5% likelihood versus Harris’s 33.5%.
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