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Asian shares rise while dollar falls over fed worries and trade hopes

In this post:

  • Asian markets hit a three-year high on Friday, following gains on Wall Street, as easing Middle East tensions and trade hopes lifted investor confidence.
  • The US dollar dropped to its lowest level in over three years, on track for its biggest first-half fall since the 1970s.
  • Oil prices headed for a weekly drop of over 10%, as a ceasefire between Iran and Israel calmed fears of supply disruptions.

Asian shares climbed on Friday to their highest level in over three years, following strong gains on Wall Street. At the same time, the dollar weakened amid doubts over the Federal Reserve’s independence and rising expectations for early rate cuts.

Global stock markets looked set to finish the week with gains, as worries about Middle East unrest and disputes over tariffs and trade deals eased for now.

MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan reached a high point since November 2021 as reported by the Reuters. It later rose by 0.2% and was on track for a 3% weekly gain. Japan’s Nikkei climbed by 1.5%, briefly topping 40,000 for the first time since January.

European futures pointed higher, with contracts on the EUROSTOXX 50 and Germany’s DAX up by 0.6%, and the FTSE up 0.16%. In the US, stock futures remained mostly steady after Wall Street hit its record highs on Thursday due to growing bets on Fed rate cuts.

Market focus shifted to a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump might name a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell by September-October. Traders fear such a move could undermine the Fed’s credibility.

Dollar set for largest first-half drop since early 1970s

The dollar fell to a three-and-a-half-year low on Friday and was on track for a 1.4% drop. Year to date, it has lost more than 10%. If this holds through the end of the week, it would mark its biggest first-half fall since free-floating exchange rates began in the 70s.

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Early on Friday, the euro traded at $1.1693 after touching $1.1745—the highest since September 2021. Sterling fetched $1.3733, just below its October 2021 peak of $1.37701. The dollar index stood at 97.378, near its lowest since March 2022 and set for a 2% decline in June—its sixth consecutive monthly loss.

Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was at 144.73 per dollar, and the Swiss franc traded at 0.8013, close to a decade-high. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the EU should pursue a “quick and simple” trade deal instead of  a “slow and complicated” deal. A White House official also confirmed that Washington and Beijing have agreed on a fast-track process for rare earths shipments.

In the bond and commodity markets, US Treasury yields in Asia were stable, with the two-year note at 3.7418% and the 10-year at 4.2554%.

Oil prices are on track for their biggest weekly fall in months after a ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased supply worries. Brent crude rose 0.52% to $68.08 per barrel and US crude added 0.61% to $65.54, though both contracts were down more than 10% for the week. Spot gold, on the other hand, declined by 0.23% to $3,320.25 an ounce.

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